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Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. / Falchetta, Giacomo; Gernaat, David; Hunt, Julian; Sterl, Sebastian Hendrik.

In: Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 231, 10.09.2019, p. 1399-1417.

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Falchetta, Giacomo ; Gernaat, David ; Hunt, Julian ; Sterl, Sebastian Hendrik. / Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review. In: Journal of Cleaner Production. 2019 ; Vol. 231. pp. 1399-1417.

BibTeX

@article{3098c47c5ca34cbfb24fc659d7da9ab4,
title = "Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review",
abstract = "In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50{\%} of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables.",
keywords = "Climate impact, Climate-water-energy nexus, Hydropower, Power supply reliability, Sub-Saharan Africa",
author = "Giacomo Falchetta and David Gernaat and Julian Hunt and Sterl, {Sebastian Hendrik}",
year = "2019",
month = "9",
day = "10",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263",
language = "English",
volume = "231",
pages = "1399--1417",
journal = "Journal of Cleaner Production",
issn = "0959-6526",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

AU - Falchetta, Giacomo

AU - Gernaat, David

AU - Hunt, Julian

AU - Sterl, Sebastian Hendrik

PY - 2019/9/10

Y1 - 2019/9/10

N2 - In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables.

AB - In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables.

KW - Climate impact

KW - Climate-water-energy nexus

KW - Hydropower

KW - Power supply reliability

KW - Sub-Saharan Africa

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85066504687&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263

DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.263

M3 - Scientific review

VL - 231

SP - 1399

EP - 1417

JO - Journal of Cleaner Production

JF - Journal of Cleaner Production

SN - 0959-6526

ER -

ID: 45866473